Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbddc…5d4f
weather · 117 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$75 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$74 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 65
Open positions20
Markets (closed)97 / 117
History coverage48d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 20 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 90¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+145%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 90¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+124%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Yes 48¢ 76¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Yes 52¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 19¢ 5¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Yes 41¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 6? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$6 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$5 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$5 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$4 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$9 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$4 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 48m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 48m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 32h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 32h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 33h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 40h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 41h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -10.3% -18.8% 37% 37% -17.5%
≤30d 53 -6.5% -15.4% 38% 38% -12.4%
≤90d 97 -14.3% -22.5% 33% 33% -33.1%
all 97 -14.3% -22.5% 33% 33% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 33% -33.1%
10% -29.9% 33% -39.5%
15% -36.7% 33% -45.4%
20% -42.9% 33% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.63 · official $59.63 (match) · 155 history records