Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BD 0xbdd4…9bcd sports 425 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate75%318W / 107L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$795est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$766
7 days−$1,810
14 days+$90
30 days−$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$695
crypto 0% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -1.3% -10.7% 78% 73% -15.9%
≤30d 271 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 72% -10.4%
≤90d 425 -1.7% -11.1% 75% 69% -10.2%
all 425 -1.7% -11.1% 75% 69% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 69% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 40% -18.8%
15% -27.4% 15% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$188 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses318 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$795
Open positions0
Markets (closed)425 / 425
History coverage52d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 425 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $70 +$19 +27%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $56 +$14 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$18 +18%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $151 +$59 +39%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $805 −$805 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $695 +$114 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $523 +$179 +34%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $438 +$83 +19%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $409 +$30 +7%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $336 +$75 +22%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $308 +$26 +8%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $270 +$39 +15%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $250 +$20 +8%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $252 +$47 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$51 +26%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $103 +$17 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $155 +$29 +19%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $130 +$24 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $104 +$27 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $92 +$12 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $64 +$22 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $52 +$18 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $65 +$38 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $101 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,871 −$1,871 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $150 +$55 +36%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,493 −$2,493 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,315 +$554 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,158 +$159 +14%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $982 +$176 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $771 +$211 +27%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $94 +$27 +29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $75 +$18 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $121 −$121 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $116 +$59 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,492 +$679 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $998 +$132 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $82 +$12 +14%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,079 +$610 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,820 +$262 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $89 7m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $70 13m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner SELL Sashi Esport 99¢ $70 51m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 79¢ $56 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Amaru Gaming 99¢ $210 3h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 71¢ $151 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 85¢ $805 21h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 99¢ $809 22h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $348 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $57 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $13 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $29 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $14 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $6 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $187 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $24 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $14 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $5 23h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $701 25h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $523 27h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 100¢ $521 32h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 84¢ $300 33h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 84¢ $38 33h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 84¢ $38 33h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 84¢ $24 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1225 history records