Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbdd2…0bd8
crypto · 254 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$25,296 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,727 · open −$1,769
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 20 History 234 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$1,398
14 days+$6,202
30 days+$4,670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $52,448 $50,416 −$2,032 (-4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $17,182 $17,406 +$224 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $15,297 $15,287 −$10 (-0%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $8,399 $9,027 +$628 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 66¢ $9,000 $8,322 −$678 (-8%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $8,012 $8,256 +$244 (+3%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 78¢ 80¢ $7,164 $7,303 +$139 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $6,562 $6,593 +$31 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 59¢ 60¢ $5,000 $5,002 +$2 (+0%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $1,770 $1,875 +$105 (+6%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $1,410 $1,395 −$15 (-1%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No 84¢ 83¢ $1,255 $1,245 −$10 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 85¢ $420 $425 +$5 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 32¢ $685 $325 −$360 (-53%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 93¢ $323 $318 −$5 (-2%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $294 $293 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 80¢ $296 $249 −$47 (-16%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 72¢ $142 $145 +$3 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 89¢ 96¢ $89 $96 +$7 (+8%)
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? No 93¢ $232 $0 −$232 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $580 −$150 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $320 +$75 +23%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $19,822 +$40 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $22,473 +$1,433 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $23,349 +$3,970 +17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $9,578 +$713 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $2,685 +$18 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,231 +$102 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $20,472 −$3,723 -18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 24 $470 +$75 +16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $10,385 +$445 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 23 $224 +$13 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $46 +$52 +114%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $25,564 +$1,125 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $2,250 +$250 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $1,608 +$230 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $6,027 +$463 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $9,654 +$112 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 04 $232 −$232 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $16,050 +$1,450 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $48,255 +$5,719 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $32,113 +$3,336 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $2,880 +$120 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $25,831 +$1,901 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 21 $1,797 +$667 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $21,377 +$3,339 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $5,400 +$101 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 19 $10,247 −$5,485 -54%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 19 $28,019 −$7,595 -27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 17 $21,874 +$1,399 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Apr 15 $3,306 −$1,660 -50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 10 $8,875 −$1,480 -17%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 08 $1,914 +$134 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $25,116 −$18,328 -73%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 07 $9,125 −$1,051 -12%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 06 $5,097 −$433 -8%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 06 $13,406 −$1,176 -9%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $3,434 +$40 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 04 $234 +$66 +28%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Apr 01 $796 +$66 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Apr 01 $31 +$8 +27%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $920 +$80 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $5,468 +$589 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 01 $10,106 +$1,244 +12%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $11,125 +$1,521 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $35,528 +$2,024 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $73,841 +$11,406 +15%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $2,196 +$23 +1%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 24 $376 +$15 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 92% −$13,721
other 3% −$5,523
finance 2% +$1,788
crypto 1% −$2,269
sports 1% +$1,239
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20,848 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $8,000 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2,500 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,000 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $5,000 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $2,000 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $2,000 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $5,000 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20,000 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $12,975 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $430 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $6,872 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $3,287 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5,410 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $866 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1,586 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8,204 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $4,425 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $1,307 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $46 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $395 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10,868 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $13 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $5,688 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $3,358 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $524 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.0% -8.6% 75% 25% -6.6%
≤30d 16 +11.9% +1.2% 88% 38% -6.5%
≤90d 54 -1.0% -10.4% 74% 30% -9.0%
all 234 +0.3% -9.2% 70% 33% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 33% -10.8%
10% -17.9% 18% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 11% -27.2%
20% -33.1% 9% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134,014.76 · official $134,014.76 (match) · 3500 history records