Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdd2…3eff world 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%25W / 56L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$11
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$19
other 21% −$2
finance 2% −$5
politics 1% +$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 32 -0.1% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 26% 0% -9.4%
all 81 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses25 / 56
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage475d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $157 $157 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $120 −$3 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $360 +$3 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $490 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $122 +$3 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $155 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $171 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $65 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $423 −$7 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $77 −$3 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $165 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $99 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $166 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $166 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $370 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $239 −$4 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $166 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $124 +$4 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $113 −$7 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $216 −$5 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $156 +$7 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1,360 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $164 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $12 +$1 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $333 +$23 +7%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $170 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $317 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $106 +$9 +8%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $554 −$2 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 10 $7 −$2 -27%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $157 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $31 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $34 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $35 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $126 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $91 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $45 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $25 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $56 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $101 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $146 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $173 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $173 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $173 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $173 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.04 · official $157.44 · 312 history records