Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BD 0xbdd1…1692 crypto 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$76 (+11%) realized +$78 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%61W / 55L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$189
14 days−$195
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$52
other 34% +$45
crypto 23% −$35
weather 6% −$1
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -37.5% -43.5% 34% 33% -60.2%
≤30d 86 -30.7% -37.3% 38% 33% -52.1%
≤90d 86 -30.7% -37.3% 38% 33% -52.1%
all 116 +2.7% -7.1% 53% 48% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 48% -0.7%
10% -16.0% 42% -10.2%
15% -24.1% 40% -18.9%
20% -31.5% 27% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses61 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)116 / 132
History coverage153d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? No 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? No 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? No 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? No 68¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? No 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? No 60¢ 59¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? No 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? No 60¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? No 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? No 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? No 78¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? No 62¢ 59¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? No 81¢ 77¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? No 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? No 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $54 $0 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
SK Slavia Praha vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -64%
Rio Ave FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-17? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Rio Ave FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-18? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-01-18? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-18? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-01-20? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-01-17? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 53¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 48¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 58m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.71 · official $14.67 (match) · 308 history records