Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdd1…0c4f other 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,759 (-12%) realized −$6,494 · open −$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%78W / 85L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$4,396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$944
7 days−$887
14 days−$792
30 days−$3,060
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$4,960
other 16% +$1,956
sports 14% −$2,107
crypto 4% −$1,111
economics 4% +$1,491
politics 3% +$199
finance 0% +$16
tech 0% +$112
culture 0% +$295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -29.8% -36.5% 44% 38% -28.0%
≤30d 72 -18.6% -26.4% 51% 43% -32.6%
≤90d 163 +22.8% +11.1% 48% 42% -20.6%
all 163 +22.8% +11.1% 48% 42% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.1% 42% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here +0.5% 26% -28.2%
15% -9.2% 22% -35.1%
20% -18.1% 18% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +48% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$206 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$4,396
Realized−$6,494
Unrealized−$265
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses78 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions37
Markets (closed)163 / 183
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$314
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $2,619 $2,729 +$111 (+4%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 16¢ 16¢ $293 $295 +$1 (+0%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 73¢ $245 $263 +$18 (+8%)
Anduril IPO before 2027? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $362 $225 −$138 (-38%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 39¢ 39¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 96¢ 93¢ $129 $125 −$4 (-3%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $85 $84 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $73 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $105 $49 −$56 (-53%)
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $57 $27 −$30 (-53%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+16%)
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Yes 41¢ 18¢ $31 $14 −$17 (-55%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $30 $13 −$16 (-54%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $34 $13 −$22 (-63%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+13%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-48%)
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+24%)
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 18 $129 −$129 -100%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $10 +$24 +254%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jun 18 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 18 $48 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $121 +$85 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $244 −$244 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 18 $231 −$231 -100%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$15 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$97 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 +$9 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $241 −$241 -100%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadi Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $128 −$75 -59%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $156 +$20 +13%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,017 +$120 +12%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $361 +$243 +67%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $216 +$45 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $96 +$16 +17%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $110 +$100 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $125 +$25 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$7 -43%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $505 +$118 +24%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $322 +$69 +22%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 09 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $53 −$53 -100%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 08 $62 +$5 +8%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 07 $56 +$27 +49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $95 +$55 +58%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $741 +$156 +21%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 06 $29 +$112 +387%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 06 $469 −$131 -28%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $61 +$19 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $65 +$19 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $375 −$145 -39%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 43m
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 1h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY No 34¢ $3 5h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 7h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 8h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 8h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 11¢ $29 28h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 17¢ $1 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $81 31h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 18¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,395.80 · official $4,397.13 (match) · 3500 history records