Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdce…d303 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-2%) realized −$93 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%14W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$68
sports 20% −$21
economics 11% $0
world 3% $0
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -38.9% -44.7% 20% 0% -18.0%
≤30d 15 -13.0% -21.3% 7% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 66 -12.9% -21.2% 21% 9% -11.1%
all 66 -12.9% -21.2% 21% 9% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 9% -11.1%
10% -28.7% 5% -19.6%
15% -35.6% 2% -27.3%
20% -41.9% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses14 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)66 / 70
History coverage86d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $178 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $290 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $371 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $167 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $140 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $150 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $66 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $54 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $12 +$3 +27%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 09 $1 −$1 -53%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $137 $0 -0%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $6 +$1 +12%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $71 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $84 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $83 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $84 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $84 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics May 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? May 01 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $66 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $17 +$4 +23%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $84 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $84 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $26 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 46h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 46h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 9d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 12d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 17d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 21d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 21d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 23d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 23d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 24d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 24d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.70 · official $6.70 (match) · 224 history records