Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:53:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdcd…0fe6 sports 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$892 (-2%) realized −$888 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate14%30W / 180L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$590est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$369
14 days−$435
30 days−$1,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$682
other 13% −$209
world 13% −$195
politics 8% −$126
crypto 5% +$4
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% −$17
culture 1% −$38
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -7.1% -15.9% 2% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 125 -6.2% -15.2% 5% 1% -13.0%
≤90d 186 -9.1% -17.7% 7% 2% -13.1%
all 210 -6.5% -15.4% 14% 5% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 5% -12.4%
10% -23.5% 3% -20.7%
15% -30.9% 3% -28.4%
20% -37.7% 2% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$888
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses30 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$590
Open positions1
Markets (closed)210 / 211
History coverage446d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $34 $29 −$4 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $44 −$26 -59%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $70 −$3 -4%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $130 −$3 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $134 −$73 -54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $176 −$60 -34%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $134 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$4 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $318 −$2 -0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $149 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $68 −$2 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 14 $164 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $188 −$10 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $186 −$8 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $368 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $157 −$12 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $216 −$5 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $112 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $161 −$4 -2%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $132 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $182 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $194 −$3 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $42 −$5 -11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $194 −$5 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $84 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $144 −$4 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $134 −$35 -26%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $134 −$56 -42%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $136 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $260 −$8 -3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 10 $104 −$4 -4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 10 $52 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $140 −$4 -3%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $82 −$4 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $354 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $98 −$18 -18%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $278 −$5 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 09 $47 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $34 −$2 -7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $285 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $61 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 41m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $50 1h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 64¢ $127 1h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 65¢ $130 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 31¢ $27 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 31¢ $27 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $116 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $114 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $176 19h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $134 23h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $38 23h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 24h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 24h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $134 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $38 24h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $162 25h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $162 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 11¢ $22 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 11¢ $22 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.30 · official $29.30 (match) · 774 history records