Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdcc…ddd8 sports 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%15W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3
politics 25% −$4
other 24% −$4
economics 7% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
culture 4% −$1
world 4% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
all 145 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses15 / 130
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage162d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 97¢ 96¢ $44 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 26 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $121 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 28 $41 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $148 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 26 $697 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $182 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 25 $197 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 23 $99 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $40 $0 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 17 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 15 $149 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 12 $161 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $51 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $44 1h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $42 11d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $42 11d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $38 25d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $38 25d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $38 33d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $38 33d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 83d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 83d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $49 83d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $49 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? SELL No 97¢ $41 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $41 84d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $47 84d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $47 84d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 94¢ $42 84d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $42 84d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 84d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $45 84d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 84d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 85d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $37 85d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $37 85d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 91¢ $41 85d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $42 85d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $44 85d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $44 85d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $48 85d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $48 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $40 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.66 · official $43.66 (match) · 540 history records