Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdcc…ea07 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$4
other 26% −$6
politics 20% $0
sports 7% $0
finance 4% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.0% -14.0% 0% 0% -16.8%
≤30d 15 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 15 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 0% -9.0%
all 40 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage285d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $8 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $33 +$1 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $28 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $31 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $10 −$8 -77%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30? Sep 24 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $26 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 15 $2 $0 -7%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $47 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 14 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 13 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 15h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 15h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 15h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 17h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $30 36h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $31 38h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $31 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $11 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $19 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $5 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.59 · official $30.31 (match) · 160 history records