Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbdcb…36c9 sports 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$347 (-1%) realized −$264 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%54W / 97L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$713est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$746
7 days+$3,187
14 days+$2,520
30 days+$5,501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,341
other 3% +$1,819
world 0% −$239
crypto 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +23.9% +12.1% 50% 50% +11.2%
≤30d 43 +48.7% +34.5% 51% 51% +17.7%
≤90d 68 +10.5% -0.0% 38% 38% -12.6%
all 151 +14.9% +3.9% 36% 34% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 34% -9.6%
10% -6.0% 34% -18.2%
15% -15.1% 32% -26.1%
20% -23.4% 30% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$527 vs −$291 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$614
Realized−$264
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses54 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$713
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage126d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Leviatán Esports 46¢ 40¢ $697 $614 −$83 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $946 +$1,271 +134%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $298 +$327 +110%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $248 +$88 +36%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 18 $357 −$350 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $52 −$51 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $341 −$336 -99%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $204 −$202 -99%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $511 +$1,339 +262%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $493 −$482 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $399 −$18 -4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $431 +$1,257 +292%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $703 −$691 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $424 +$711 +168%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $722 +$437 +60%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $742 +$258 +35%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $991 −$976 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,015 −$997 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $679 +$540 +80%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $620 +$847 +136%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $334 +$287 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $301 +$476 +158%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $330 −$326 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $540 −$533 -99%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $404 −$399 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $349 −$43 -12%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $357 −$350 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $198 −$193 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $498 +$212 +43%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $226 +$767 +340%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $334 +$317 +95%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $310 +$293 +95%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $293 +$314 +107%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $352 −$346 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $414 +$317 +77%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $385 −$379 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $166 −$162 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $132 +$84 +64%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag Jun 05 $293 −$286 -98%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $294 −$288 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $217 −$215 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $133 +$2,020 +1519%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $367 +$98 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $992 +$864 +87%
Parma: Lucia Bronzetti vs Camila Osorio May 13 $229 −$222 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Iga Swiatek May 10 $437 −$81 -19%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo May 10 $562 −$550 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perri May 08 $522 −$509 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO5) - VCL North America: St May 07 $388 −$382 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic May 07 $36 −$35 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Talia Gibson vs Diana Shnaider May 07 $981 −$157 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $200 13m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $508 15m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $813 16m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $536 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 70¢ $1,404 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $625 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 20¢ $410 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 47¢ $298 3h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY SaD Esports 73¢ $248 17h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 36¢ $357 17h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY SaD Esports 55¢ $46 18h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY SaD Esports 56¢ $6 18h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z Team 53¢ $341 21h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 64¢ $204 23h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 100¢ $1,850 3d
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 29¢ $493 3d
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 27¢ $511 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $381 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $399 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,688 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 43¢ $195 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $199 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $232 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 42¢ $509 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $1,135 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $424 3d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 67¢ $125 4d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 65¢ $72 4d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 62¢ $301 4d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 58¢ $177 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $613.60 · official $613.60 (match) · 296 history records