Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:29:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbdca…f267
other · 13 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$115 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open −$70
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$171
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 13
History coverage225d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%
Chart Positions 8 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 46¢ 20¢ $120 $51 −$69 (-57%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Anyones Legend 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% −$92
other 29% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 18¢ $2 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 20¢ $2 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 23¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 34h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $5 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 37h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 37h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $200 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 65¢ $75 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 27d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 27d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 27d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 53¢ $20 225d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-59.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -24.8% -31.9% 0% 0% -29.1%
≤30d 4 -43.6% -48.9% 0% 0% -62.0%
≤90d 4 -43.6% -48.9% 0% 0% -62.0%
all 5 -54.9% -59.2% 0% 0% -76.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.2% 0% -76.5%
10% -63.1% 0% -78.8%
15% -66.6% 0% -80.8%
20% -69.9% 0% -82.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.17 · official $171.17 (match) · 51 history records