Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbdca…bfef other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,941 (-58%) realized −$2,054 · open +$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$174
14 days−$223
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$905
sports 24% −$783
other 16% −$57
crypto 6% −$151
economics 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-73.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.8% -42.8% 0% 0% -44.3%
≤30d 4 -52.6% -57.1% 0% 0% -49.7%
≤90d 4 -52.6% -57.1% 0% 0% -49.7%
all 11 -70.4% -73.2% 9% 9% -68.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.2% 9% -68.9%
10% -75.8% 9% -71.9%
15% -78.1% 9% -74.6%
20% -80.2% 0% -77.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$233 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$2,054
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage589d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $101 $214 +$113 (+112%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$71 -69%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $307 −$99 -32%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $42 −$4 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $725 −$725 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $683 −$683 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $606 +$220 +36%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? Apr 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 05 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $32 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $208 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $38 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 12d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 32d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 32d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 32d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 78¢ $239 421d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 78¢ $460 421d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 421d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 78¢ $23 421d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 423d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 29¢ $683 423d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? SELL Yes 100¢ $826 424d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 73¢ $606 436d
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? BUY No 0¢ $100 437d
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? BUY No 1¢ $100 437d
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? BUY No 1¢ $100 437d
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? BUY No 1¢ $100 437d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 37¢ $98 588d
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 588d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.04 · official $214.89 (match) · 63 history records