Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbdca…3e35 sports 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-6%) realized −$136 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%45W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$71
other 22% −$112
culture 1% +$7
crypto 0% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -27.0% -33.9% 50% 50% -14.3%
≤30d 58 -16.4% -24.3% 47% 45% -28.6%
≤90d 75 -13.5% -21.7% 48% 45% -22.8%
all 92 -9.5% -18.1% 49% 47% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 47% -13.9%
10% -25.9% 43% -22.1%
15% -33.1% 36% -29.6%
20% -39.7% 27% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses45 / 47
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage93d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 37¢ 58¢ $39 $62 +$23 (+58%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $53 +$21 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $35 +$18 +52%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $42 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs Bushido Wildcats (+1.5) Jun 04 $48 −$47 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 04 $30 +$22 +74%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 03 $42 −$42 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $42 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $26 +$16 +63%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $19 +$6 +32%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $10 +$9 +88%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $10 +$10 +97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $10 +$4 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $10 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $8 +$16 +202%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$6 +118%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $10 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$2 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Slovakia (-1.5) Jun 01 $10 −$7 -70%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs KUUSAMO.gg - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$2 -15%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs KUUSAMO.gg - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $10 +$5 +50%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Svajda Jun 01 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $10 +$4 +41%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys - Map 2 Winner May 31 $10 +$13 +128%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner May 31 $11 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $40 38m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 39m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $75 40m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $35 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $6 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $42 31h
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY Heroic 49¢ $10 15d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY NRG 30¢ $10 15d
Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs Bushido Wildcats (+1.5) BUY Nemiga 57¢ $48 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 15d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 62¢ $42 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 16d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 57¢ $30 16d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 54¢ $42 16d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 99¢ $42 16d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 60¢ $26 16d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BIG 75¢ $19 16d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 50¢ $19 16d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL NRG 99¢ $19 16d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Lynn Vision 100¢ $20 16d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Lynn Vision 50¢ $10 16d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 52¢ $10 16d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY illwill 69¢ $10 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $10 17d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $10 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 70¢ $10 17d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL GamerLegion 100¢ $14 17d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BIG 100¢ $13 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.89 · official $108.89 (match) · 167 history records