Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbdc6…6962
other · 30 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage445d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $86 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $46 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Jun 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 22 $9 $0 +2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $11 $0 +5%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 31 $12 $0 +2%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 70% +$1
other 22% −$3
crypto 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $8 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $28 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $35 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $42 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $6 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $41 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $14 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $15 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $29 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $47 36h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $46 38h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $31 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $12 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $15 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $29 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $47 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $26 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $26 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 9 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 29 -10.3% -18.8% 34% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -26.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -33.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -40.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.77 · official $18.77 (match) · 94 history records