Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbdc3…a4ca other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%9W / 76L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$9
politics 18% −$3
sports 8% +$60
tech 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 85 +2.5% -7.2% 11% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 7% -9.2%
10% -16.1% 7% -17.9%
15% -24.2% 6% -25.8%
20% -31.7% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×30.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses9 / 76
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage124d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $122 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $147 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $125 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $152 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $121 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $135 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $337 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $465 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $299 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $288 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $296 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $158 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $469 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $124 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $119 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $163 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $169 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 06 $165 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 04 $149 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $337 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $412 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $383 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $294 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $476 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 31 $139 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $292 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $300 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $154 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 29 $123 $0 -0%
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $260 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $124 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $311 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $138 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 9h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $26 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $122 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $73 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 15d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $147 23d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $147 30d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $125 30d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $125 30d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $152 32d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $152 33d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 60d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 61d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $119 61d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $119 62d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $133 62d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $133 62d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $135 62d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $135 62d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $166 62d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $166 63d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $160 63d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $160 63d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 63d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 63d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $154 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records