Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdc2…e485 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$185 (-34%) realized −$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$229
other 18% +$11
crypto 5% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.1% -23.2% 60% 60% -43.3%
≤30d 5 -15.1% -23.2% 60% 60% -43.3%
≤90d 5 -15.1% -23.2% 60% 60% -43.3%
all 5 -15.1% -23.2% 60% 60% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 60% -43.3%
10% -30.5% 40% -48.7%
15% -37.2% 20% -53.7%
20% -43.4% 20% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$135 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $73 +$10 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 +$22 +84%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $157 +$41 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $122 −$122 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $4 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $149 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 85¢ $84 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $73 12h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $27 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $7 18h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $157 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $115 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.31 · official $24.31 (match) · 13 history records