Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdc0…c46c crypto 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 670d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,265 (-29%) realized −$5,596 · open +$331
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%75W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$280
7 days−$531
14 days−$579
30 days−$757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$4,176
other 7% −$1,037
world 2% −$12
economics 1% −$162
politics 0% −$74
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.7% -19.2% 29% 29% -64.3%
≤30d 19 -21.5% -29.0% 26% 26% -38.5%
≤90d 107 -40.5% -46.2% 28% 26% -43.6%
all 249 -24.4% -31.6% 30% 28% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 28% -41.2%
10% -38.1% 27% -46.9%
15% -44.1% 24% -52.0%
20% -49.6% 22% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$51 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

670d coverage
Net worth$1,343
Realized−$5,596
Unrealized+$331
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses75 / 174
Open positions2
Markets (closed)249 / 251
History coverage670d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $770 $1,037 +$268 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $242 $305 +$63 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $310 −$276 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $64 +$209 +326%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $394 −$370 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $96 −$90 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 08 $338 −$40 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4PM ET May 31 $71 −$67 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? May 31 $80 −$9 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 31 $350 −$270 -77%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 30 $116 −$80 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 29 $304 +$126 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $167 −$65 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2PM ET May 29 $104 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1PM ET May 29 $53 +$121 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 09 $5 +$5 +96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 09 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 09 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 09 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 08 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 08 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 08 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 08 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 08 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 08 $10 +$28 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? May 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $238 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $107 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $294 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $36 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $34 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $147 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $247 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 38¢ $310 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $40 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $46 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $60 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 24¢ $167 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $64 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $99 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $294 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 26¢ $299 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $338 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $71 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,342.94 · official $1,342.94 (match) · 625 history records