Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbdbe…e45b sports 396 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,068 (-16%) realized −$2,030 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%162W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$194est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$2,195
other 4% −$72
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -27.9% -34.8% 29% 29% -53.1%
≤30d 17 -27.9% -34.8% 29% 29% -53.1%
≤90d 354 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 43% -25.5%
all 354 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 43% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 43% -25.5%
10% -27.7% 40% -32.6%
15% -34.7% 37% -39.2%
20% -41.1% 31% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$35 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$2,030
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses162 / 192
Est. fees paid−$194
Open positions42
Markets (closed)354 / 396
History coverage78d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Kathinka von Deichmann 30¢ 66¢ $64 $143 +$79 (+124%)
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Darwin Blanch 21¢ 16¢ $95 $75 −$20 (-21%)
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Maya Joint 38¢ 80¢ $16 $34 +$18 (+114%)
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Alessandra Mazzola 42¢ 45¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Yulia Starodubtseva 36¢ 20¢ $22 $12 −$10 (-46%)
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Luisina Giovannini 62¢ 55¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 66¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Terence Atmane 36¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+176%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 39¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+155%)
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Anastasiia Sobolieva 43¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Francesco Maestrelli 33¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Zeynep Sonmez 37¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Pierre Delage 23¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 54¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 53¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Galions 33¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 40¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Tomas Barrios 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets McCartney Kessler 51¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Clement Chidekh 36¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Himeno Sakatsume 36¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Alejandro Tabilo 51¢ 53¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Moez Echargui 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 31¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $38 −$21 -55%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $1 +$1 +96%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Wichita: Sebastian Gorzny vs Ozan Baris Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 30 $10 −$2 -19%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Fiona Ferro vs Sorana Cirstea Apr 16 $1 $0 +21%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5 Apr 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Akita Northern Happinets vs. Koshigaya Alphas Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Ch Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Anna-Lena F Apr 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Sarasota: Daniil Glinka vs Andres Andrade Apr 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5) Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Wuning: Harry Wendelken vs Pavel Kotov Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5) Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Busan: Ilya Ivashka vs Dane Sweeny Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Caty McNally vs Katie Volynets Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-14.5) Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Lions Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Kings Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-12? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Madrid: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Elvina Kalieva Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Madrid: Nicolas Jarry vs Jurij Rodionov Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Donna Vekic vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix, Qualification: Jule Niemeier vs Anna-Lena F Apr 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Jiangsu Dragons Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5 Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Campinas: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Alvaro Guillen Meza Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Monza: Martin Landaluce vs Hugo Gaston Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Alessandra Mazzola 36¢ $1 6m
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Alessandra Mazzola 39¢ $1 8m
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Alessandra Mazzola 39¢ $1 8m
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Alessandra Mazzola 39¢ $1 8m
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Alessandra Mazzola 49¢ $1 13m
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Alessandra Mazzola 47¢ $1 14m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 21¢ $1 16m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 21¢ $1 16m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 62¢ $1 18m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 18m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 18m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 18m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 18m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 18m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 18m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 19m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 19m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 19m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 19m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 19m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 19m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 19m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 19m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 35¢ $1 19m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 35¢ $1 19m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 35¢ $1 19m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 19m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 24¢ $1 19m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 35¢ $1 19m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 35¢ $1 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.90 · official $345.91 (match) · 1411 history records