Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:55:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbdbe…5249 crypto 422 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$315 (-0%) realized −$315 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%192W / 230L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days−$746
14 days−$746
30 days−$746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$78
sports 10% −$483
other 1% −$913
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -11.1% -19.5% 43% 37% -20.0%
≤30d 79 -11.1% -19.5% 43% 37% -20.0%
≤90d 157 -8.6% -17.3% 43% 37% -16.9%
all 422 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 38% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 38% -11.4%
10% -24.7% 33% -19.8%
15% -31.9% 25% -27.6%
20% -38.6% 20% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$83 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses192 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)422 / 422
History coverage155d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 422 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$37 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$89 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $235 −$104 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$50 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $115 −$26 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$101 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$90 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$18 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $210 −$161 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $104 +$100 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $240 −$206 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$74 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $144 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $95 −$84 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$34 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$48 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$52 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $109 +$43 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $58 +$61 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $114 −$36 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $168 +$51 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $89 −$22 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $131 −$123 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $178 +$106 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$18 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $69 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $196 +$124 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$33 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$44 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$30 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$56 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $23 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $131 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $84 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $85 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $187 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $36 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1505 history records