Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdbd…ce07 crypto 620 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$607 (-2%) realized −$607 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%340W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,539
7 days−$1,151
14 days−$812
30 days−$1,046
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,044
sports 0% −$120
other 0% −$5
politics 0% −$10
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -15.9% -23.9% 48% 48% -33.1%
≤30d 369 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 51% -14.9%
≤90d 620 -10.2% -18.8% 55% 48% -16.9%
all 620 -10.2% -18.8% 55% 48% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 48% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 40% -24.9%
15% -33.6% 34% -32.1%
20% -40.1% 29% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$34 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$607
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses340 / 280
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)620 / 620
History coverage42d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 620 Trades
no open positions (235 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $385 −$375 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $168 −$163 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$74 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $172 +$150 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $495 +$161 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$44 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $670 −$650 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$124 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$36 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$42 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$37 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $88 +$37 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$15 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $129 +$116 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$57 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$48 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $56 +$40 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$42 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $57 −$36 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $57 +$46 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $122 +$91 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $65 −$63 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $115 +$111 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$19 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $287 +$218 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $120 −$116 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$24 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $174 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $172 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $83 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $35 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1554 history records