Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbdbb…74a1 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+2%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -5.5% -14.5% 76% 41% -8.0%
≤30d 17 -5.5% -14.5% 76% 41% -8.0%
≤90d 17 -5.5% -14.5% 76% 41% -8.0%
all 17 -5.5% -14.5% 76% 41% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 41% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 24% -16.8%
15% -30.2% 6% -24.8%
20% -37.0% 6% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records