Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BD 0xbdba…aa96 sports 307 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-2%) realized −$48 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%157W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$166
14 days+$143
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$139
other 14% −$144
politics 2% −$103
crypto 1% −$7
world 0% +$14
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -20.0% -27.6% 49% 49% +1.1%
≤30d 200 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 54% -4.7%
≤90d 220 -7.6% -16.4% 55% 54% -4.4%
all 303 -9.5% -18.1% 52% 51% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 51% -10.8%
10% -25.9% 50% -19.3%
15% -33.1% 47% -27.1%
20% -39.7% 36% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses157 / 146
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)303 / 307
History coverage473d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ 30¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 46¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $35 +$18 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$26 +65%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $39 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $46 +$5 +11%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $25 +$15 +59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $91 +$69 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $27 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$9 +58%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $448 +$302 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12 +$10 +79%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $7 +$4 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $26 +$10 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 +$5 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$17 +82%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$11 +107%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $56 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 38¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 47¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 46¢ $5 4h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 49¢ $20 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 66¢ $35 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $39 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 60¢ $30 26h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 70¢ $51 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $15 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $30 32h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 62¢ $25 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 28¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 61¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 65¢ $30 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $31 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $20 3d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 68¢ $30 3d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 62¢ $20 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 3d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 35¢ $10 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.94 · official $74.02 · 564 history records