Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BD 0xbdb9…2593 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate52%12W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day27.9pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit84%portable

Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-19.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-11.1%	-19.5%	52%	43%	-13.2%
≤30d	23	-11.1%	-19.5%	52%	43%	-13.2%
≤90d	23	-11.1%	-19.5%	52%	43%	-13.2%
all	23	-11.1%	-19.5%	52%	43%	-13.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover27.9 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-19.5%	43%	-13.2%
10% ← realistic here	-27.2%	30%	-21.5%
15%	-34.3%	30%	-29.1%
20%	-40.7%	26%	-36.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -9% → late -12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.83 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$15

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses12 / 11

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage3d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day27.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	Yes	39¢	48¢	$12	$15	+$3 (+24%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	FURIA	11¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$40	+$15	+38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$20	−$5	-24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$10	−$2	-15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$10	+$1	+10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$51	+$33	+65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$15	+$35	+226%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$194	−$78	-40%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$12	−$12	-98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 19	$16	+$3	+16%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$111	−$4	-3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$17	−$17	-99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner	Jun 19	$19	+$4	+21%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se	Jun 19	$4	$0	+3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	+$3	+65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 18	$20	+$10	+50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$16	−$5	-30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$6	−$1	-16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$6	+$5	+86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$38	+$7	+20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 18	$5	+$3	+51%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	39¢	$12	9m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	92¢	$2	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY FURIA	11¢	$2	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	90¢	$38	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	76¢	$33	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$30	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	51¢	$20	2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL Team Falcons	84¢	$56	3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	52¢	$10	3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	53¢	$10	3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$40	7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	58¢	$15	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	30¢	$9	24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	34¢	$10	25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	39¢	$10	25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	38¢	$10	25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Spirit	49¢	$11	25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	43¢	$10	26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	SELL FURIA	81¢	$84	28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	48¢	$51	28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner	SELL FURIA	100¢	$50	28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner	BUY FURIA	30¢	$15	29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	38¢	$116	39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	46¢	$194	40h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$12	44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	SELL Team Falcons	78¢	$13	44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	37¢	$6	45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	SELL Team Falcons	35¢	$6	45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	55¢	$10	47h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.93 · official $14.93 (match) · 91 history records