Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BD 0xbdb9…e40e sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$711 (+8%) realized +$669 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate81%52W / 12L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$41
14 days−$41
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$673
other 14% +$16
crypto 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -32.6% -39.0% 50% 50% -16.7%
≤30d 6 -19.6% -27.3% 67% 33% -9.5%
≤90d 22 +2.2% -7.5% 77% 45% -10.1%
all 64 +10.9% +0.4% 81% 67% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 67% -0.9%
10% -9.2% 45% -10.4%
15% -18.0% 31% -19.1%
20% -26.0% 23% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$44 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$1,642
Realized+$669
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses52 / 12
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage161d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 95¢ 97¢ $700 $720 +$20 (+3%)
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $500 $535 +$35 (+7%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $400 $388 −$12 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $302 +$64 +21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $80 +$17 +21%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $30 −$22 -73%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines May 29 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 29 $1,000 +$31 +3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $50 −$49 -99%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Apr 07 $100 +$7 +7%
Kraken vs. Oilers Apr 07 $1,000 +$31 +3%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 07 $100 −$99 -99%
Warriors vs. Celtics Apr 01 $10 +$2 +24%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 01 $10 +$9 +91%
Magic vs. Hornets Apr 01 $20 +$11 +56%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Apr 01 $20 +$13 +67%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Apr 01 $30 +$4 +15%
Pistons vs. Wizards Apr 01 $50 +$4 +9%
Wizards vs. Lakers Apr 01 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Apr 01 $50 +$16 +32%
Thunder vs. Nets Apr 01 $100 +$10 +10%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Apr 01 $100 +$59 +59%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Apr 01 $5 +$4 +89%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 18 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $30 +$27 +89%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $50 +$25 +49%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 18 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $200 +$60 +30%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Mar 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Celtics vs. Thunder Mar 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 16 $10 +$9 +92%
Bulls vs. Clippers Mar 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Nets vs. 76ers Mar 16 $20 +$6 +28%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Mar 16 $20 +$8 +41%
Wizards vs. Heat Mar 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Bucks vs. Hawks Mar 16 $30 +$12 +39%
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Mar 16 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 16 $30 +$38 +128%
Wizards vs. Celtics Mar 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Pistons vs. Nets Mar 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Knicks vs. Pacers Mar 16 $100 +$14 +14%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 16 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 16 $100 +$54 +54%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $20 −$13 -66%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 09 $200 +$55 +27%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY? Feb 06 $400 +$64 +16%
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Feb 06 $804 +$133 +17%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 06 $50 +$28 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 79¢ $302 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 6d
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 95¢ $701 6d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 82¢ $402 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 16d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 70d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 70d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,000 72d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Michigan Wolverines 91¢ $100 72d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 78¢ $100 72d
Nuggets vs. Jazz BUY Nuggets 93¢ $100 78d
Kraken vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 97¢ $1,000 78d
Wizards vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 93¢ $60 79d
Suns vs. Grizzlies BUY Suns 87¢ $30 79d
Celtics vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 52¢ $10 79d
Clippers vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 53¢ $5 90d
Pistons vs. Wizards BUY Pistons 92¢ $50 90d
Magic vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 64¢ $20 90d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) BUY Liverpool FC 60¢ $20 91d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 91d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 92d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 92d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 92d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 92d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY No 53¢ $30 92d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,642.41 · official $1,642.41 (match) · 129 history records