Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbdb9…1418 crypto 811 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,419 (+3%) realized +$5,450 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate66%536W / 272L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$50
14 days+$21
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$5,630
crypto 2% −$153
world 1% −$551
politics 1% +$348
tech 0% −$316
sports 0% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.7% -11.1% 59% 18% -6.5%
≤30d 369 -0.7% -10.2% 71% 17% -12.9%
≤90d 615 -1.8% -11.1% 69% 22% -28.0%
all 808 +2.6% -7.2% 66% 24% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 24% -7.1%
10% -16.1% 14% -16.0%
15% -24.2% 11% -24.1%
20% -31.6% 9% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$70 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$5,450
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses536 / 272
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)808 / 811
History coverage200d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 808 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 11¢ 6¢ $57 $30 −$26 (-46%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $29 −$3 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $132 −$27 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $152 −$36 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $176 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $109 −$5 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$4 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $134 +$36 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $53 −$3 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $138 +$22 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $66 +$41 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $49 +$15 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $78 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $29 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $76 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $6 $0 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $24 +$1 +4%
Will voter turnout be 52-56% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 07 $5 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$18 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $90 +$22 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $83 −$33 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $61 +$6 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $50 −$10 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $27 −$17 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $25 −$13 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 30 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $99 −$25 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $68 −$29 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $39 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $29 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $59 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 16h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 16h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 19h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 19h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $44 19h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $49 20h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $51 25h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 34h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $80 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $47 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $39 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 39h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 39h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 41h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.77 · official $35.77 (match) · 2565 history records