Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdb6…518d other 52 markets active 5h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 81% −$14
politics 14% −$8
other 3% +$21
sports 1% −$62
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +4.6% -5.4% 18% 6% -7.6%
≤90d 38 -7.4% -16.2% 18% 8% -13.5%
all 51 -5.7% -14.7% 20% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 6% -9.9%
10% -22.9% 6% -18.5%
15% -30.3% 6% -26.4%
20% -37.1% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage597d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $8 +$6 +79%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $5 +$8 +172%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $30 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $22 +$1 +5%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 06 $45 $0 +1%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 25 $20 +$12 +63%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 05 $85 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $85 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 29 $13,528 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $229 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $1,120 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 29 $354 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 5h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 6h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 25h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $8 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.43 · official $20.43 (match) · 231 history records