Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdb2…c15f world 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$7
other 42% −$2
politics 6% +$1
crypto 5% $0
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 +1.2% -8.4% 24% 6% -8.4%
≤90d 17 +1.2% -8.4% 24% 6% -8.4%
all 36 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -8.9%
10% -20.1% 3% -17.6%
15% -27.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage405d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $44 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $99 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $21 +$7 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1 $0 -16%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $3 $0 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $18 $0 -2%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 22 $25 $0 -1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 09 $23 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $50 13m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $49 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $1 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $9 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $35 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $20 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $25 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $11 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $11 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $23 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $46 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $46 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $45 22d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $45 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records