Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdb1…c04c other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 40L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$1
other 27% −$2
politics 18% +$2
sports 7% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 53 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage280d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $95 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $12 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 05 $7 +$2 +37%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $4 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 27 $1 $0 -39%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $3 $0 -13%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30? Sep 24 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $32 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $32 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 44h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $6 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $4 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $4 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $36 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $36 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 45¢ $4 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 45¢ $12 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.26 · official $36.26 (match) · 190 history records