Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdb1…1b46 crypto 499 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate69%345W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$4
14 days−$1
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$27
weather 6% +$4
other 1% −$2
world 1% −$2
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
finance 0% −$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -0.9% -10.4% 84% 20% -8.1%
≤30d 272 -3.9% -13.0% 78% 32% -13.6%
≤90d 487 -0.8% -10.3% 70% 41% -12.2%
all 497 -0.9% -10.4% 69% 40% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 40% -12.4%
10% -19.0% 22% -20.8%
15% -26.8% 15% -28.4%
20% -34.0% 11% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses345 / 152
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)497 / 499
History coverage119d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 497 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 92¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 0¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.11 · official $1.42 (match) · 1237 history records