Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbdad…1b7f
other · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$44
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage441d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 15 $1 $0 +53%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 20 $18 $0 -1%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $18 $0 +1%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 15 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $14 +$2 +17%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t May 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 27 $21 $0 -1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win a seat in Saskatchewan? Apr 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 01 $27 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 29 $27 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$1
world 28% −$5
sports 10% +$2
politics 9% $0
weather 7% −$2
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $43 6h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $43 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $16 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $30 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $32 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $18 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $10 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes $0 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $19 350d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 371d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $18 386d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 386d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 386d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 387d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No $0 387d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 388d
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? SELL No 98¢ $18 388d
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? BUY No 98¢ $18 389d
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? SELL No 98¢ $18 389d
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? BUY No 99¢ $18 389d
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 96¢ $18 389d
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 96¢ $18 389d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $18 392d
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 84¢ $18 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 25% 25% -7.7%
≤30d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 25% 25% -7.7%
≤90d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 25% 25% -7.7%
all 38 -3.1% -12.3% 42% 8% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 8% -9.9%
10% -20.7% 3% -18.6%
15% -28.3% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.4% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.06 · official $44.06 (match) · 107 history records