Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdac…b662 sports 177 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,754 (-23%) realized −$1,727 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%62W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,447
7 days−$1,447
14 days−$1,447
30 days−$2,037
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 24% −$872
weather 19% −$202
crypto 17% −$820
world 16% +$98
sports 15% +$45
politics 4% −$66
tech 2% −$34
finance 2% −$3
culture 1% −$12
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -48.1% -53.1% 27% 26% -68.8%
≤30d 107 -25.4% -32.5% 37% 34% -49.5%
≤90d 111 -24.6% -31.8% 36% 32% -44.5%
all 160 -18.8% -26.5% 39% 32% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 32% -32.7%
10% -33.6% 28% -39.1%
15% -40.0% 22% -45.0%
20% -45.9% 19% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$1,727
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses62 / 98
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions17
Markets (closed)160 / 177
History coverage159d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? No 91¢ 100¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 68¢ 100¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+47%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 35¢ 94¢ $7 $19 +$12 (+169%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+163%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 42¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-38%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 42¢ 6¢ $29 $5 −$25 (-85%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-52%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 11¢ 3¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-68%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 63¢ 4¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $3 +$3 +112%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 +$3 +93%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1 $0 +23%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8 +$2 +23%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$1 -17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $8 $0 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
ITF Lourinha: Joao Domingues vs Fabrizio Andaloro Jun 19 $6 +$4 +73%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5) Jun 19 $7 +$5 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 −$30 -70%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $8 +$5 +65%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Tim Weah: 1+ goals Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Tim Weah: 2+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 +$9 +180%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $211 −$1 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $5 +$4 +84%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $97 +$13 +14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$24 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 +$36 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 1? Jun 18 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 31? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 2? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 16m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 41¢ $85 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 42¢ $120 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 7h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Karolina Pliskova 50¢ $51 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $25 11h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $15 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $20 26h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $2 27h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $2 27h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 48¢ $2 27h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 51¢ $3 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $25 28h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $3 28h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 3¢ $1 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $5 28h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL No 78¢ $5 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 28h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 29h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $7 29h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 29h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 60¢ $5 30h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 30h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $2 30h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 30h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 58¢ $7 30h
ITF Lourinha: Joao Domingues vs Fabrizio Andaloro BUY Fabrizio Andaloro 57¢ $3 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.65 · official $218.66 (match) · 440 history records