Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdab…edbf politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$2
sports 19% $0
other 18% $0
tech 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage179d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $104 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $214 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $214 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $214 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $214 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $214 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? Feb 25 $184 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $214 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 03 $214 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $214 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 29 $204 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 06 $207 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $208 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $205 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $205 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $104 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 12h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $104 5d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $105 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $105 23d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $68 23d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 32d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 32d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 40d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 40d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $106 45d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $106 45d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $106 51d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $106 52d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $107 70d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $107 71d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 72d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 73d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $214 89d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $132 89d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 89d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 89d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $214 97d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $189 97d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 97d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $214 103d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $214 104d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $214 105d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records