Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdab…8aea other 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+1%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$52
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$131
sports 27% −$374
world 13% +$181
crypto 2% −$39
politics 2% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.4% -12.6% 10% 10% -32.7%
≤30d 27 -24.8% -32.0% 7% 7% -50.9%
≤90d 83 -15.1% -23.2% 33% 33% -11.4%
all 93 -10.3% -18.9% 37% 37% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 37% -9.8%
10% -26.6% 34% -18.4%
15% -33.7% 34% -26.3%
20% -40.2% 31% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$33 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 59
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 103
History coverage94d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $11 +$39 +347%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $6 +$94 +1469%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Akram Afif: 2+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -86%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $209 −$205 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $61 +$51 +84%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $103 −$100 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 04 $125 +$207 +165%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $47 +$40 +86%
Exact Score: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 2 Real Madrid CF? May 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $99 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +44%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $136 +$65 +48%
Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $60 +$68 +114%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $100 +$93 +93%
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 19 $86 +$55 +64%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $30 −$24 -81%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? Apr 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 3 Real Madrid CF? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 Apr 15 $74 +$46 +62%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 15 $63 −$63 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22m
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 23m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 1h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 5h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Alge BUY 12¢ $15 10h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 30h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $20 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 10¢ $21 35h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 14¢ $18 3d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Akram Afif: 2+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 13¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Czechia vs. South BUY 18¢ $20 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $7 5d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.29 · official $6.29 (match) · 200 history records