Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BD 0xbdaa…1dc1 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+13%) realized +$88 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$145
crypto 16% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +81.6% +64.3% 100% 100% +64.3%
≤30d 2 +81.6% +64.3% 100% 100% +64.3%
≤90d 2 +81.6% +64.3% 100% 100% +64.3%
all 2 +81.6% +64.3% 100% 100% +64.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +64.3% 100% +64.3%
10% +48.6% 100% +48.6%
15% +34.2% 100% +34.2%
20% +21.0% 100% +21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $90 $83 −$7 (-8%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $67 $64 −$4 (-5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $91 +$64 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $91 +$85 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 44¢ $61 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 44¢ $92 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $155 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $68 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $92 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $90 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $91 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $176 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 51¢ $91 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.34 · official $385.34 (match) · 9 history records