Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbda8…fc16 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$479 (-32%) realized −$243 · open −$236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$416
other 35% −$515
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$70 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$243
Unrealized−$236
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 10
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 12¢ $112 $107 −$5 (-4%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 15¢ 14¢ $106 $96 −$11 (-10%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 31¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 34¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $223 −$219 -98%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $72 −$71 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$47 -99%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $62 −$60 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 15¢ $109 9m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $115 10m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $71 29m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $19 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $53 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $77 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $77 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners AND Bruno Fernandes: 1+ BUY 33¢ $121 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 14¢ $103 2h
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $72 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $77 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 73¢ $47 2d
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY 16¢ $64 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $62 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $46 3d
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $51 3d
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $29 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 27¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.33 · official $421.72 · 21 history records