Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

BD 0xbda8…0040 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,408 (+7%) realized +$999 · open +$409

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate67%8W / 4L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$1,380per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$3,555now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,042

7 days+$1,426

14 days+$1,426

30 days+$1,426

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-1.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+9.3%	-1.1%	67%	42%	-1.5%
≤30d	12	+9.3%	-1.1%	67%	42%	-1.5%
≤90d	12	+9.3%	-1.1%	67%	42%	-1.5%
all	12	+9.3%	-1.1%	67%	42%	-1.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.1%	42%	-1.5%
10%	-10.5%	25%	-11.0%
15%	-19.2%	25%	-19.6%
20%	-27.1%	8%	-27.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

38% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +13% → late +6% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$253 vs −$149 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.4 per $1 lost it wins $3.4

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$3,555

Realized+$999

Unrealized+$409

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses8 / 4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)12 / 14

History coverage7d

Avg bet$1,380

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	86¢	100¢	$3,000	$3,480	+$480 (+16%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	5¢	3¢	$146	$76	−$70 (-48%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$2,807	+$237	+8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$4,779	+$210	+4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$2,110	+$403	+19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$2,005	+$192	+10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Jun 21	$2,968	−$534	-18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$83	+$10	+12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Jun 19	$1,097	+$956	+87%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 19	$25	−$1	-4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 18	$203	−$5	-2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$56	−$56	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$17	+$8	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$11	+$6	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$3,013	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	92¢	$2,807	13h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$2,573	23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,513	23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	83¢	$2,110	24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	90¢	$2,169	24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$2,206	33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	91¢	$2,005	2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,014	2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY Yes	95¢	$553	2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY Yes	95¢	$1,360	2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	SELL No	6¢	$361	2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	16¢	$1,000	2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY Yes	5¢	$146	3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL No	96¢	$2,053	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$83	3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	SELL No	92¢	$59	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	63¢	$24	3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	86¢	$55	3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	48¢	$500	5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	50¢	$198	5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	58¢	$197	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$35	6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	55¢	$300	6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$21	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	58¢	$203	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$25	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$17	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$11	7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	61¢	$100	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,555.31 · official $3,555.31 (match) · 38 history records