Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbda6…a4f0 crypto 1284 markets active 3h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate60%770W / 514L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$440
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$237
sports 2% −$23
other 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 600 +1.1% -8.5% 66% 66% -8.8%
≤30d 1152 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 36% -10.5%
≤90d 1284 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 33% -11.5%
all 1284 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 33% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 33% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 32% -19.9%
15% -27.9% 23% -27.7%
20% -35.0% 15% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses770 / 514
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1284 / 1284
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1284 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records