Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbda6…6ae0 sports 356 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$122 (-0%) realized −$121 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%188W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$106
14 days+$40
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$748
other 1% −$38
world 1% +$21
politics 0% +$4
tech 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +62.7% +47.2% 67% 67% +33.4%
≤30d 37 +20.1% +8.7% 59% 54% +2.2%
≤90d 102 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 45% -7.4%
all 354 -1.5% -10.9% 53% 47% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 47% -11.3%
10% -19.4% 42% -19.8%
15% -27.2% 33% -27.5%
20% -34.3% 27% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$51 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses188 / 166
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)354 / 356
History coverage150d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $22 +$20 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$24 +120%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$53 +238%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $43 −$3 -6%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $93 +$33 +35%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $128 −$5 -4%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $9 +$7 +77%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $29 +$26 +89%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $81 −$6 -7%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $19 +$14 +72%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $22 +$22 +101%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $159 +$31 +20%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $47 −$46 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $86 −$86 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $73 +$5 +7%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $59 −$6 -11%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $36 +$14 +37%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $70 −$64 -91%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $19 −$16 -87%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 25 $78 +$48 +62%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner May 25 $132 +$22 +17%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 24 $61 −$6 -10%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $22 +$33 +150%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 24 $38 +$28 +74%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $49 +$17 +36%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 24 $42 +$35 +82%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 24 $45 +$45 +99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $61 +$49 +79%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 21 $22 −$16 -74%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 21 $218 +$4 +2%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 20 $29 +$61 +212%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 20 $60 +$35 +58%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 19 $33 −$33 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Natus Vincere qualify for the DreamLeague Season 29 Playoffs? May 19 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Team Liquid qualify for the DreamLeague Season 29 Playoffs? May 19 $19 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 19 $82 −$16 -19%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $53 +$71 +135%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 18 $18 +$17 +93%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 18 $38 +$41 +110%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $44 +$18 +40%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 17 $93 −$22 -23%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 17 $28 +$42 +151%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner May 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 52¢ $25 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $22 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $22 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 3d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 88¢ $66 12d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Aurora 9¢ $7 19d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 44¢ $15 19d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 39¢ $6 19d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 32¢ $11 19d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 33¢ $11 19d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 33¢ $5 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 35¢ $17 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 35¢ $4 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 53¢ $6 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 53¢ $25 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 53¢ $17 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 54¢ $18 20d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Liquid 26¢ $17 20d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $9 20d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $29 21d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $29 21d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL LGD Gaming 43¢ $14 21d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL LGD Gaming 31¢ $10 21d
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY GLYPH 37¢ $6 21d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 38¢ $17 21d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 41¢ $14 21d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 51¢ $17 21d
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY GLYPH 41¢ $9 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.18 · official $49.18 (match) · 2093 history records