Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbda5…fa16 crypto 922 markets active 3h ago coverage 75d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$625 (-2%) realized −$627 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate73%670W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$14
14 days−$69
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 48% +$394
tech 27% −$418
other 20% +$44
crypto 5% −$52
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.3% -9.2% 55% 25% -8.5%
≤30d 180 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 17% -10.0%
≤90d 920 -1.2% -10.6% 73% 16% -9.7%
all 920 -1.2% -10.6% 73% 16% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 16% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$627
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses670 / 250
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)920 / 922
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 920 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 18? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? Yes 72¢ 85¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 17? Jun 17 $36 +$2 +7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? Jun 17 $278 +$42 +15%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $96 −$14 -14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? Jun 17 $301 −$9 -3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? Jun 17 $153 −$22 -14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$3 +17%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? Jun 16 $85 +$10 +12%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +21%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$5 +9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$3 -19%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 -3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$4 -27%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$3 -21%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$6 -35%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$3 -9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $39 −$4 -9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? Jun 10 $25 $0 -2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 10? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$4 -25%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 9? Jun 09 $418 −$21 -5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $47 −$2 -5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 9? Jun 09 $100 −$16 -16%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? Jun 09 $343 −$82 -24%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $35 −$6 -18%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$1 -9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -24%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 8? Jun 08 $49 +$6 +12%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 8? Jun 08 $35 +$2 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 8? Jun 08 $38 +$2 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8? Jun 08 $24 +$1 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 8? Jun 08 $70 +$8 +11%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $91 −$9 -10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8? Jun 08 $92 −$11 -12%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 on June 8? Jun 08 $19 −$4 -22%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 −$5 -16%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 5? Jun 05 $114 −$11 -10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 5? Jun 05 $34 +$4 +11%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 5? Jun 05 $35 +$3 +10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $28 +$5 +17%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 −$5 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? BUY Yes 72¢ $8 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 70¢ $14 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 75¢ $15 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 67¢ $20 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 82¢ $10 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 80¢ $15 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 64¢ $12 9h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 78¢ $15 9h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 69¢ $13 9h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 80¢ $15 9h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 76¢ $23 9h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 83¢ $25 9h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $199 9h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 9h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 9h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $100 9h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $101 10h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $14 10h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 10h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $15 10h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 10h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 11h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 11h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 12h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? SELL Yes 73¢ $52 12h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 12h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 13h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 13h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.04 · official $30.04 (match) · 3500 history records