Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

BD 0xbda2…b888 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)

Total PnL +$1,785 (+30%) realized +$1,785 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,958per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+24.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+37.6%	+24.5%	67%	67%	-23.0%
≤30d	3	+37.6%	+24.5%	67%	67%	-23.0%
≤90d	3	+37.6%	+24.5%	67%	67%	-23.0%
all	3	+37.6%	+24.5%	67%	67%	-23.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.5%	67%	-23.0%
10%	+12.6%	67%	-30.4%
15%	+1.7%	67%	-37.1%
20%	-8.3%	33%	-43.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +38% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$877 vs −$2,630 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.67 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1,785

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 3

History coverage3d

Avg bet$1,958

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$3,385	−$2,630	-78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$1,877	+$875	+47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$611	+$879	+144%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	3¢	$89	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	22¢	$614	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	19¢	$666	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	69¢	$1,211	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$1,509	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,752	28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$969	30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$909	31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$768	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	94¢	$722	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$509	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records