Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbda1…827f weather 330 markets active 16h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,931 (+5%) realized +$10,931 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%80W / 312L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$723per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Fees−$3,011est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,727
7 days−$560
14 days−$21,338
30 days+$4,533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$20,096
weather 16% −$445
other 1% −$1,700
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -64.1% -67.5% 15% 15% -10.1%
≤30d 243 -55.7% -59.9% 19% 19% -7.6%
≤90d 392 -55.5% -59.7% 20% 20% -6.4%
all 392 -55.5% -59.7% 20% 20% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.7% 20% -6.4%
10% -63.6% 17% -15.3%
15% ← realistic here -67.1% 15% -23.5%
20% -70.3% 12% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -57% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,666 vs −$400 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,931
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses80 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$3,011
Open positions0
Markets (closed)392 / 330
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$723
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 392 Trades
no open positions (305 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 15? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 21? Jun 15 $735 −$735 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 19? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 21? Jun 15 $193 −$193 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? Jun 15 $558 −$558 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 12? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 20? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 14? Jun 15 $194 −$194 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 13? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 23? Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 13? Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 12? Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22? Jun 15 $567 −$567 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 13? Jun 15 $233 −$233 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 14? Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 19? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 19? Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 13? Jun 15 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 21? Jun 15 $876 −$876 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 12? Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 22? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 21? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Jun 15 $234 −$234 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C or higher on April 12? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 17? Jun 15 $449 −$449 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 19? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 23? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 12? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 12? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 19? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on April 22? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on April 18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 13? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 12? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 20? Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 12? Jun 15 $296 −$296 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 23? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 21? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 20? Jun 15 $753 −$753 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on April 18? Jun 15 $908 −$908 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 12? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 17? Jun 15 $228 −$228 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 19? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $9,855 16h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $4,850 16h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 54¢ $4,987 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $69 30h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $160 40h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 40h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $410 40h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $514 40h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $510 40h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $457 40h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $513 40h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,028 40h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Johannus Monday 11¢ $1,392 41h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Johannus Monday 24¢ $962 41h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Johannus Monday 24¢ $1,023 41h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Johannus Monday 29¢ $1,021 41h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Federico Cina 59¢ $4,991 42h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 53¢ $988 44h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 55¢ $1,013 44h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 54¢ $1,014 44h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $11,355 45h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 50¢ $983 46h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 50¢ $1,002 46h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 50¢ $1,015 46h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $800 47h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $1,015 47h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $1,015 47h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 30¢ $127 2d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 28¢ $1,022 2d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 30¢ $1,021 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records