Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbda0…8992 other 358 markets active 2d ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,842 (-10%) realized −$4,844 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%137W / 220L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days−$280
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$5,649
politics 6% +$302
sports 6% +$224
weather 3% −$124
crypto 3% −$219
world 0% +$31
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.7% +6.5% 58% 50% -3.6%
≤30d 67 +35.7% +22.8% 46% 43% -23.2%
≤90d 133 +5.8% -4.2% 42% 36% -27.9%
all 357 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 31% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 31% -18.0%
10% -29.1% 25% -25.9%
15% -35.9% 20% -33.0%
20% -42.2% 17% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -25% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$71 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$4,844
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses137 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)357 / 358
History coverage253d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $11 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $111 +$28 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 −$34 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$22 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$20 +96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$18 +357%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$27 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$9 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$7 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$26 +353%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$11 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $17 +$33 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $23 +$29 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $41 −$39 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $75 −$71 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $62 −$53 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$102 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 04 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 04 $123 −$121 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $56 +$15 +27%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $148 −$145 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $109 +$126 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $72 −$70 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $65 +$71 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $31 −$9 -28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $9 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $34 −$21 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? May 31 $26 −$17 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $39 −$29 -74%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $5 +$13 +249%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $30 +$24 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 30 $32 −$32 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $10 +$28 +267%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $21 −$12 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $31 +$17 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $21 +$23 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $111 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 95¢ $40 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 57¢ $23 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 95¢ $47 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? SELL Yes 75¢ $33 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.38 · official $12.38 (match) · 2029 history records