Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:22:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd9f…4d7c other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$99 (-0%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$15
politics 22% −$6
sports 11% −$77
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 78 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 122 -6.1% -15.1% 10% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 3% -9.9%
10% -23.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -30.6% 2% -26.4%
20% -37.4% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage134d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $221 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $172 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $337 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $191 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $161 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $215 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $329 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $152 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $314 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $151 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $385 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $433 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $167 $0 +0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $151 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $333 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $384 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $372 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $366 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $346 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $212 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $143 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 07 $351 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $180 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $151 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 41h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 26d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $172 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $172 27d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 27d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $167 28d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 29d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 29d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $191 29d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $191 30d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $161 30d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $161 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $215 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $215 33d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 34d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 35d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $209 35d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $209 36d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $187 37d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $187 37d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $199 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 353 history records