Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd9c…f8cd
other · 56 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$43 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$43 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses13 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage570d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 0 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $9 +$6 +65%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $65 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $7 +$5 +83%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-13? May 16 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $52 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $44 +$2 +5%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Devils Apr 06 $16 −$16 -100%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Utah Valley Wolverines Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Devils vs. Hurricanes Mar 29 $29 +$15 +52%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 27 $20 +$9 +45%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 05 $83 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 13 $83 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $13,535 −$14 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 83% −$14
politics 9% −$7
other 4% +$9
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$32
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 7h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 41h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 43h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $9 4d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $12 7d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 10d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 15d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 20d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $65 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +12.8% +2.0% 20% 20% +0.5%
≤30d 18 +12.2% +1.5% 28% 17% -3.3%
≤90d 44 -1.8% -11.2% 23% 11% -11.0%
all 56 -2.0% -11.3% 23% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 9% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 9% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 9% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records