Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:09:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd9a…36f3
crypto · 123 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$118 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$117 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$98
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses79 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)113 / 123
History coverage26d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 8 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days−$218
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? No 94¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Washington Nationals 93¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $80 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $24 +$3 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $25 −$8 -33%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $20 +$6 +29%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $226 +$13 +6%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 07 $263 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $45 +$5 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $28 −$28 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,032 −$261 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 02 $272 −$6 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco May 31 $150 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $75 +$5 +7%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec May 31 $14 −$2 -15%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary May 31 $60 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $40 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $472 +$63 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 30 $50 +$1 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 30 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $269 +$114 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $2 $0 -1%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World May 25 $1 $0 -9%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1 $0 -11%
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1 $0 -8%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2 $0 -12%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 22 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 22 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 22 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 22 $4 $0 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $22 +$5 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 38% −$298
world 29% +$190
politics 19% −$2
other 9% +$5
sports 4% −$23
tech 2% +$11
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 63¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 53¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $80 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 100¢ $27 11h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 99¢ $58 11h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 89¢ $11 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 25h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 89¢ $13 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $13 33h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 93¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $21 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $10 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $100 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 99¢ $169 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 92¢ $99 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.1% -14.2% 82% 27% -9.3%
≤30d 113 -4.1% -13.3% 70% 30% -12.1%
≤90d 113 -4.1% -13.3% 70% 30% -12.1%
all 113 -4.1% -13.3% 70% 30% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 30% -12.1%
10% -21.6% 17% -20.5%
15% -29.1% 5% -28.2%
20% -36.1% 1% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.28 · official $118.28 · 380 history records