Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd96…3592 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$75 (+6%) realized +$78 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$157
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$80
other 36% −$3
crypto 19% +$9
world 4% −$23
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% -26.1%
≤90d 8 +7.7% -2.5% 88% 25% +1.2%
all 15 -2.4% -11.7% 87% 13% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 13% -2.6%
10% -20.1% 13% -11.9%
15% -27.8% 13% -20.4%
20% -34.9% 13% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$90 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage176d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $382 $379 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $160 −$157 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $155 +$100 +65%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 20 $154 +$137 +90%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 22 $8 $0 +3%
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Apr 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 22 $244 +$9 +4%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Mar 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in March 2026? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $645 in January? Feb 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $290 end of January? Feb 02 $19 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jan 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jan 06 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.35 · official $379.35 (match) · 29 history records