Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd93…448d
crypto · 313 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$209 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$158 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses160 / 156
Open positions2
Markets (closed)316 / 313
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day992.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 316 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days−$158
14 days−$158
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 45¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 38¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$31 -145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$113
other 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 316 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 11% -11.2%
≤30d 316 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 11% -11.2%
≤90d 316 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 11% -11.2%
all 316 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 11% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover992.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 11% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 6% -19.7%
15% -30.4% 3% -27.4%
20% -37.3% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.65 · official $3.50 (match) · 3500 history records