Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd93…13fc crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (235 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,955 (+11%) realized +$1,955 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 40L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day234.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$336
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (235 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -24.5% -31.7% 31% 12% -10.4%
≤30d 53 -31.1% -37.7% 25% 13% -11.2%
≤90d 53 -31.1% -37.7% 25% 13% -11.2%
all 53 -31.1% -37.7% 25% 13% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover234.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.7% 13% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -43.6% 9% -19.7%
15% -49.1% 8% -27.5%
20% -54.1% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$538) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -49% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
64.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$78 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,955
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$340
Trades / day234.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $1,076 −$62 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $563 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $442 −$57 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $811 −$15 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $67 −$11 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $80 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $2,106 +$959 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2,012 −$684 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $193 −$163 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $602 +$61 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $398 −$279 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $582 −$265 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $758 −$265 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $682 −$57 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $627 +$1,038 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $711 −$113 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $158 −$143 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $308 −$218 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $299 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $292 +$333 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $311 +$219 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $288 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $81 −$14 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $228 −$12 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $83 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $126 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $63 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $504 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $616 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $538 −$32 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $671 −$21 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $402 −$10 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 08 $399 −$275 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records