Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BD 0xbd93…c244 crypto 149 markets active 7d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$124 (+14%) realized +$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%80W / 69L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$35
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$25
sports 31% +$59
other 12% +$9
finance 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 18% -13.0%
≤30d 149 +11.9% +1.2% 54% 40% +0.2%
≤90d 149 +11.9% +1.2% 54% 40% +0.2%
all 149 +11.9% +1.2% 54% 40% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.2% 40% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -8.5% 36% -9.4%
15% -17.3% 29% -18.1%
20% -25.4% 23% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses80 / 69
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage14d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -72%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$2 +46%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +108%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$2 +95%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$2 +74%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +39%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$6 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -26%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $6 $0 -6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June? Jun 05 $2 $0 +20%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 05 $2 $0 -24%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 05 $4 $0 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4? Jun 04 $8 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +31%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $4 $0 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 83¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $0 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $1 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $1 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $2 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 56¢ $1 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 56¢ $1 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 93¢ $1 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 56¢ $1 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 93¢ $1 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? SELL No 8¢ $0 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? SELL No 48¢ $0 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? SELL No 48¢ $0 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? BUY No 49¢ $2 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 58¢ $0 7d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 7d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 7d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 63¢ $2 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 532 history records